As migrant numbers in Mexico continue to fall, a priest reveals what the figures don’t tell
Official statistics show a steep drop in irregular migration cases in Mexico, from over 1.2 million in 2024 to 155,730 in 2025, and 18,083 in early 2026. U.S. Customs and Border Protection recorded 443,671 encounters at the southwest border in FY2025, down from 2.1 million in FY2024, with 90,121 in FY2026 so far. Catholic shelters in Puebla have seen a corresponding decline in assistance, from 1,200 migrants in 2023 to 145 in 2025 and only about 60 in the first half of 2026. Father Alberto Vivar León explains that despite lower numbers, migrants continue to use routes like the freight rail “La Bestia” and transit points such as the Puebla bus terminal, and that policies by former U.S. and Mexican administrations have influenced migration patterns.
3 months ago
The drop in recorded irregular‑migration cases in Mexico and U.S. border encounters masks a continued flow of people who face higher costs, dangerous routes and organized‑crime extortion, as described by Father Alberto Vivar León, who has assisted migrants for more than a decade in Puebla. 1 2
Official Mexican data show irregular‑migration registrations falling from over 1.2 million in 2024 to 155,730 in 2025, with just 18,083 cases reported by May 2026. 1
U.S. Customs and Border Protection recorded 443,671 southwest‑border encounters in fiscal 2025, down from 2.1 million the previous year, and 90,121 so far in fiscal 2026. 1
Catholic shelters in Puebla reflected the trend: 1,200 migrants were assisted in 2023, but only 145 in 2025, with roughly 60 helped in the first half of 2026. 2
Father Vivar says the traffic has not stopped; migrants still cross Mexico, though in smaller numbers. He attributes part of the decline to policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, which limited free passage. 1
He warns that organized‑crime groups now profit by demanding $6,000‑$7,000 from migrants seeking to travel north. 2
Historically, many migrants rode “La Bestia,” the freight‑train network. Since 2018, drug traffickers armed with long guns have begun extorting and violently ejecting those who refuse to pay, prompting migrants to avoid the trains. 1
Migrants have shifted to bus routes, but Mexican authorities have tightened document checks, leading criminal groups to control alternative bus corridors where scams, abuse and forced labor occur. 2
Father Vivar recounted groups of young migrants who were kidnapped, forced to work on a ranch for weeks, and later escaped. 1
He also described a case of sexual abuse after a migrant was abducted in San Luis Potosí and later rescued with help from locals. 2
Criminals routinely ambush migrants at bus terminals such as Puebla’s CAPU, exploiting their vulnerability and the likelihood of deportation if they report crimes. 1
The Catholic Church continues to operate shelters that provide food, clothing, medical care and short‑term lodging, funded in part by parish bazaars. 2
These shelters receive no government assistance; the National Migration Institute runs detention centers, not shelters. 1
Father Vivar urges all believers to practice almsgiving—providing necessary items and support to migrants, emphasizing that people flee out of necessity, not choice. 2*
Evaluate Catholic teachings on migration amid declining official statistics
Catholic teaching on migration does not become morally optional or morally “scaled down” when official migration statistics decline. The Church’s moral framework centers on the dignity of each person, the common good, and the duty to welcome and protect migrants as neighbors, while also insisting on lawful governance and suppression of abuses. Even when fewer people are counted, Catholic teaching highlights that many migrants remain unseen, and that public discourse must avoid misrepresentation and prejudice.
Catholic social teaching repeatedly frames migration as a real test of charity and justice because migrants and refugees are brothers and sisters with the same human dignity. The Dicastery’s Pastoral Orientations on Intercultural Migrant Ministry emphasizes that migrants should be recognized as “brothers and sisters, bearers of the same human dignity,” and that assistance is not merely charity but “an act of justice due to them.”
Similarly, Pope Leo XIV’s message for the 2025 World Day of Migrants and Refugees stresses that global circumstances force “millions” to move for refuge, and it links migration with hope and with the Church’s mission. Yet the underlying moral claim is that the response is required because of what migration means for human dignity and common responsibility, not because of whether numbers trend upward or downward.
The key evaluation point for “declining official statistics” is this: Catholic morality is not computed by aggregates. Even a smaller number of people can involve grave injustice, exploitation, family separation, and persecution—conditions the Church addresses by insisting on welcome, protection, promotion, and integration.
Pope Francis directly warns that migration routes can conceal people from view: “migrants that no-one must see: they are hidden.”
So, if official statistics decline, Catholics should not automatically infer “the problem has ended.” The Church’s approach is to consider that:
The Dicastery text explicitly calls media to embrace a “conversion of attitudes” and to use correct terminology and “sound research-based arguments against their misrepresentation.”
Evaluation: In Catholic terms, declining statistics may reflect real changes, but they are not a sufficient basis for complacency, because the Church worries about misrepresentation, stereotypes, and unseen victims.
A common misunderstanding is that Catholic teaching requires either “open borders” or no responsibility for order. Catholic teaching instead holds both mercy and law.
John Paul II states that public authorities have the responsibility of controlling waves of migration for the common good, and that acceptance “must always respect the norms of law,” so it must be combined “when necessary, with a firm suppression of abuses.”
The U.S. bishops’ teaching resource likewise affirms:
Evaluation: Even if statistics fall, Catholic governance logic remains: lawful order must be protected, and abuses (including exploitation and trafficking) must be actively combated.
Pope Francis compresses Catholic responsibilities for migrants into a set of four verbs: “to welcome migrants, to protect migrants, to promote migrants and to integrate migrants.”
In his 2023 moment of prayer for migrants and refugees, Francis clarifies that safeguarding routes and stopping criminal exploitation are essential; he calls for safer roads, safer routes, and “the expansion of regular migration channels,” and insists that the work is “Welcoming, protecting, promoting and integrating.”
Evaluation: Therefore, declining official statistics cannot justify:
The Church’s framework treats “safe and regular access” as a practical moral strategy to prevent death and exploitation, not as a reward for higher numbers.
Catholic teaching also points to underlying causes. The U.S. bishops’ backgrounder describes “push factors” such as violence, unemployment, lack of quality education, and the resulting inability to support families, and it argues that addressing root causes should be part of the solution.
Benedict XVI similarly connects migration with the need for “integral development,” emphasizing that development must include solidarity and that there can be no effective development without promoting encounter, dialogue among cultures, and respect for legitimate differences.
Evaluation: Even if the total number moving declines, the Church’s insistence on integral development remains relevant, because root causes are not “solved” by a statistical drop.
Putting the sources together, Catholic practice during a period of declining numbers should look like this:
Catholic teaching evaluates migration through a moral and pastoral lens: protect human dignity, practice welcome and integration, ensure public authority governs migration in fidelity to law, and suppress abuses. Declining official statistics may be a positive sign in some circumstances, but the Church’s concern for hidden migrants, the risks of misrepresentation, and the persistent demands of justice mean Catholics should not treat a statistical decline as permission to lower the moral intensity of welcome, protection, and lawful mercy.