Reports citing the 2023 Cooperative Election Study (CES) suggest that for the first time, more Generation Z adults identify as Catholic (21%) than Protestant (19%) in the US. Other researchers, including the Pew Research Center, dispute the CES findings based on their own sampling methods and data. Pew Research Center surveys indicate that among the youngest adults (born 2000-2006), Protestants (28%) still outnumber Catholics (14), with young adults generally being less religious overall. Pew data suggests that more young adults have switched out of Catholicism (12%) than have switched into it (1%) in that age group.
about 1 month ago
Recent reports from ZENIT and Magisterium AI cite the 2023 Cooperative Election Study (CES), claiming Gen Z adults (born 1997-2012) are 21% Catholic versus 19% Protestant in the U.S.1
This marks the first time Catholics outnumber Protestants in this cohort.1
Pew's Religious Landscape Study shows the opposite: among youngest adults (born 2000-2006, ages 18-24), 28% identify as Protestant and 14% as Catholic.1
Pew notes young adults are less religious overall, with Catholics stable or declining relative to older groups.1
More young people switch out of Catholicism (12%) than into it (1%).1
Researcher Ryan Burge questions CES due to "aberrations," like Catholic identification jumping from 15-16% to 20-21% for millennials and Gen Z, inconsistent with prior years.1
Other anomalies include Mass attendance rising 5 points and "born-again" Catholics surging 9 points from 2022 to 2023.1
Despite data disputes, college campuses report rises in baptisms and confirmations in 2025, signaling youth interest in faith.1
Catholic college enrollment grew 75% from 1970 to 2022, per Cardinal Newman Society using NCEA and CARA data.1
Specific gains: Ave Maria University at record 1,342 undergraduates; Benedictine College up 22% in 10 years; Catholic University of America up 11% in 5 years.1
Is Catholic affiliation increasing among Gen Z in the United States?
No, the available Catholic sources do not indicate that Catholic affiliation is increasing among Gen Z in the United States; instead, they highlight significant challenges in youth and young adult engagement with the faith, including notable absence from active practice.
The most directly relevant document, Listen, Teach, Send: A National Pastoral Framework for Ministries with Youth and with Young Adults (2024) from the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB), explicitly addresses the spiritual landscape for younger generations, which encompass Gen Z (typically those born 1997–2012). It identifies three key realities: profound transitions impacting their growth, insufficient Church investment in accompaniment during these periods, and the fact that "these generations have been among the most absent from the active practice of the Catholic faith in our nation's history." This framework serves as a "nationwide summons" to intensify efforts in homes, families, parishes, and communities, implying a recognition of decline rather than growth in affiliation or participation. Developed through consultations with youth, families, and leaders, it was approved in June 2024, reflecting contemporary concerns without citing data showing rising affiliation.
While the document distinguishes between "affiliation" (self-identification) and "active practice," its urgent call to action—framed around listening, teaching, and sending forth—suggests that even nominal ties are strained, necessitating institutional and familial renewal. No quantitative trends, such as surveys from Pew Research or Gallup (common in such analyses), are provided to demonstrate increases.
Global statistics from the Vatican's Catholic Church Statistics 2025 (Fides Agency) offer a panoramic view up to 2023 but lack U.S.-specific breakdowns by generation. These figures focus on baptized Catholics worldwide (updated to June 30, 2023) and Church structures (to December 31, 2023), prepared for World Mission Sunday. Without granular data on U.S. Gen Z affiliation—e.g., rates of self-identification as Catholic among 18–28-year-olds—they do not support claims of growth in this demographic.
Older sources reinforce a historical emphasis on evangelization amid challenges. Pope St. John Paul II's 1979 lecture at The Catholic University of America praised campus ministry and Catholic higher education for fostering faith amid secular influences but noted sacrifices needed to counter enrollment and financial strains—issues persisting today without evidence of reversal for younger cohorts. Similarly, the Pontifical Council for Culture's 2004 Where Is Your God? stresses maintaining a Catholic presence in schools and universities to combat unbelief, underscoring the "enormous potential" of educational networks while cautioning that formation must be authentically Catholic to unify activities. These underscore ongoing evangelization needs, not upward affiliation trends.
Several references pertain to unrelated contexts: early 20th-century Catholic Encyclopedia entries on Protestantism in Germany (1913), Catholicism in Switzerland, Canada, and India, which discuss historical demographics, missionary growth, and comparisons with Protestants. These provide no insight into modern U.S. Gen Z trends and are not applicable here.
The sources systematically reviewed do not directly resolve the query with empirical data on Gen Z Catholic affiliation rates (e.g., no longitudinal surveys like those from CARA at Georgetown University). They are relevant insofar as they diagnose pastoral urgency—particularly the USCCB framework's focus on accompaniment amid absence—and align with Church teachings on the New Evangelization (cf. Christus Vivit, Pope Francis, 2019, though not cited here). Where data gaps exist, the Church encourages renewed missionary outreach, as in the USCCB's call to "step up and engage" in every community.
In summary, Catholic affiliation among U.S. Gen Z is not shown to be increasing in these sources; challenges in practice and engagement predominate, prompting frameworks for deeper investment. For precise statistics, consulting recent surveys beyond these references would be ideal, always interpreted through the lens of faithful accompaniment.